Trump gets credit for what appears to be Joe Biden’s Gaza ceasefire proposal

Amidst the relief at the prospect of the hostages returning home and an end to the slaughter and destruction in Gaza, there are still many questions about why the the potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas – being brokered with the help of Qatar – could not have been signed eight months ago.

For some observers, a key difference is an incoming US president that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a hard time saying no to.

Donald Trump is putting “strong pressure … not only on Hamas and the Qataris, but also on us to reach an agreement,” Channel 14 Israeli political commentator Tamir Morag told his audience on Tuesday, referring to to his conversations with officials in Netanyahu’s government.

At Channel 12, their political correspondent Yaron Avarham sounded a similar tone.

Trump “pressed hard, and made it clear to the prime minister that he wants to see an agreement before his inauguration,” on January 20, Avarham said, adding that the draft proposal is “the same agreement” that is was presented on May 27 by the Biden administration.

What you do proposal called for a permanent ceasefire, starting with an exchange of Palestinian hostages and detainees with an Israeli withdrawal from populated areas of Gaza. It also included an increase in humanitarian support followed by a long-term plan to rebuild the devastated enclave.

A current draft agreement in consideration provided to news agencies like Reuters by Israeli and Palestinian officials contains all, or almost all, of the same provisions.

It is not clear precisely what leverage Trump applied to Israel, but in December he promised that “all hell will break loose” if there is no agreement.

While that was widely interpreted as a threat against Hamas, it may also have repercussions for Israel.

Some Israeli observers believed that Netanyahu and the war in Gaza became just a distraction that Trump did not want to deal with – and that the prospects of a historic agreement were significantly more attractive.

“I think Trump has other issues on his agenda,” said Yossi Beilin, a former Labor Cabinet minister in Israel’s government and a key figure who helped start the peace talks that led to the accords. ‘Oslo of 1995.

Trump and Netanyahu have a “very, very fragile friendship,” he told CBC News, suggesting that while the two leaders may share authoritarian tendencies, they are not natural allies.

More than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza in the past 15 months – and the pace of Israeli shelling has continued unabated even as negotiators have pushed for a final deal, with 27 more dead in just the last day.

On the Israeli side, more than 1,200 were killed during Hamas’ rampage through Israeli communities on October 7, 2023, most of them civilians, with another 403 soldiers losing their lives in the fighting in Gaza. .

Hamas has taken nearly 250 people hostage and dozens are still believed to be alive in captivity.

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hamas agreed to return 33 hostages in the first 16 days, and then negotiate to return the rest. Israel has agreed to a withdrawal from most of Gaza, except for a buffer zone around the perimeter. When the hostages are released, Israel will also release more than 1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

The Biden deal?

On Monday, US President Joe Biden appeared to take credit for the breakthrough, saying the current proposal is largely the same one he and his team tried to get the two sides to agree to eight months ago, without success.

Since then, and through a series of failed negotiations, tens of thousands of Palestinians and more than 122 Israeli soldiers have been killed, and at least eight hostages have died, some killed by Israeli attacks.

Biden, and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have been fiercely criticized by Palestinians, rights groups and even some hostage families for repeated caving to Netanyahu.

Opponents blame the Biden administration for allowing horrific Israeli attacks on residential areas in Gaza and for repeatedly failing to enforce so-called US red lines, such as when the Israeli Defense Forces invaded the southern city. of Rafah, threatening hundreds of thousands of people.

The families of hostages with American citizenship he also wanted the president to cut their own deal with Hamas to free their loved ones because they felt the Israeli government was ignoring the Biden administration.

But along with international pressure, domestic politics also influenced Netanyahu’s decision to accept a deal this time.

After 15 months of relentlessly pummeling Hamas, the “total victory” the Israeli leader promised is elusive.

The militant group is still launching rockets in southern Israel and, in the last 72 hours, nine Israeli soldiers have lost their lives in northern Gaza, with more than a dozen seriously injured.

While key military leaders of Hamas have been killed, the group has also showed resistance recruiting thousands of new members.

“The mood is sad,” said Beilin, the former cabinet minister.

“The government says, ‘Yes, we’re winning’… But you can’t go on with this explanation for too long.”

Powerful voices in Netanyahu’s governing coalition, however, continue to push for Israel to continue fighting,

The far-right Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir he boasted on the pressure he put on Netanyahu who derailed past ceasefire agreements – and urged his coalition partners to do the same this time.

Ultimately, however, Netanyahu may have calculated that confronting Ben Gvir and bringing home the remaining hostages would add up to a much-needed political victory.

“The extreme right is a burden for (Netanyahu),” Mairav ​​​​Zonszein, an analyst at the think-tank Crisis Group, wrote on X. “He has an interest in returning the hostages since he takes them pressure and is a victory for the Israeli public.”

Hamas has weakened

Hamas’ weakened position was also clearly a factor in their decision to strike a deal.

Despite its successful recruitment efforts in Gaza, its wider strategic position has deteriorated since May.

Its military leader and on October 7, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli troops in October. Israel has also assassinated much of the leadership of its key ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran, one of Hamas’ key benefactors and an important supplier of military equipment, has also been weakened by Israeli attacks.

In Khan Younis on Tuesday, amid a tent city populated by hundreds of thousands of people driven from their homes by the war, people told CBC News they hoped the militant group would not sabotage their chance to start his life again.

“We hope that Hamas will agree to this negotiation and try to end the suffering of our Palestinians,” said Hala Abu Dabaa, 30.

Alaa Awda, 32, said much the same thing.

“After the end of this war, I hope we live in peace, we can build our houses again and live a life like others from all over the world.”