A far-right government in Austria would be a shock, but not unexpected

The political party on the brink of leading Austria It would take an already conservative country into a growing group of nations moving to the far right of European politics. He flirted with Nazi slogans, welcomed in Russia and drew warnings from Holocaust survivor groups. He lived on promises to deport immigrants and ban political forms of Islam.

The Freedom Party, known as FPÖ, and its fire chief, Herbert Kickl, had the chance to form a government coalition this week, after efforts to prevent him from power. If they manage to form a government, it would be a shock to the Austrian political system and a further shock to Western Europe, where similar far-right parties are on the rise in France, Germany and elsewhere.

But it wouldn’t be a surprise.

The rise of the Freedom Party follows years of growing acceptance of the far right in Austrian politics. Its rise has been helped by scandals and an ideological shift in the more mainstream conservative party that has led Austria’s governments for 15 of the past 25 years.

Unlike in neighboring Germany, where all other parties have refused to include the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany in federal governing coalitions, other parties in Austria have allowed the Freedom Party to share power for years as a junior partner.

The Freedom Party has he broadened his appeal in the recent elections with an anti-establishment message which strongly criticizes immigrants, the Covid restrictions, the European Union and the support for Ukraine in its defense against the Russian invasion. The party gained support from blue-collar workers, university graduates and, critically, women. In the European Parliament elections this summer, it was the most popular party among Austrian voters under the age of 35.

“The idea that the FPÖ is somehow politically taboo, that train has long since left the station,” said Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik, a political scientist at the University of Vienna.

The Freedom Party was founded by former members of the SS, the Nazi paramilitary force, in the 1950s. It was largely shunned in its early years, but then slowly became part of the political establishment.

The party first entered a national government with the progressive Social Democrats in 1983 and has served in four governing coalitions since then, the most recent just six years ago. It is also active at the state level and is in coalitions in most of Austria’s nine states.

Until the late 1980s, the Freedom Party was a small elitist entity largely associated with certain nationalist university fraternities. A new leader, Jörg Haider, attracted more voters by using campaign rhetoric harshly critical of foreigners.

That focus has become the engine of the modern party, sharpened and intensified by Mr. Kickl, who wrote speeches for Mr. Haider before his career. Mr. Kickl led the party increasingly provocative slogansincluding the xenophobic “Viennese blood – too many foreigners don’t do anyone any good”.

In 2017, the Freedom Party joined a governing coalition with the conservative Popular Party. Karin Kneissl, then the Freedom Party’s choice for Foreign Minister, was widely criticized for dancing at her 2018 wedding to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. He has since moved to Russia.

The administration and the coalition collapsed quickly in a scandal involving a hidden camera, a fake Russian heiress and a former leader of the Freedom Party in 2019.

During the administration, Mr. Kickl served as the country’s interior minister, putting him in charge of immigration control, a subject that was integral to the party’s platform.

He made headlines then for suggesting “concentration” of refugees in centralized facilities. Although Mr. Kickl later stated that he was not trying to provoke, many believe that his use of a Nazi-era phrase that refers to concentration camps was deliberate.

He wasn’t isolated either. Mr. Kickl’s party has repeatedly invoked the term “Volkskanzler” – “the chancellor of the people” – which was used by Hitler.

While others in the party wanted to soften the anti-immigrant rhetoric, Mr. Kickl capitalized on raw and emotional appeals to native Austrian workers. He exploited the discontent over an influx of refugees into Austria from the Middle East and, later, Ukraine. At the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, he rallied opposition to vaccination mandates, lockdowns and masks.

In last autumn’s campaign, Mr Kickl promised to build “Fortress Austria” – resorting to strict border control measures, the forced deportation of immigrants and the suspension of asylum rights for refugees , which would need to break from an agreement of the European Union on migration. He called for a reversal of measures aimed at combating climate change and a renewed focus on fossil fuels.

He has also pushed for political changes that some analysts say are pushing Austria toward a more authoritarian model of government, like Viktor Orban in Hungary. These changes include new referendum procedures that allow a relatively small slice of the electorate to force a national vote to overthrow the government or dismiss individual ministers.

Mr. Kickl’s platform appealed to many voters, with the party winning the most seats in the September elections for the national assembly. “There is more demand for a certain toughness from politics,” said Christoph Hofinger, an Austrian election researcher.

For some, it caused alarm. After the election, Christoph Heubner, the executive vice president of the International Auschwitz Committee, said that for Holocaust survivors, the victory added “an alarming new chapter to their fears and concerns.”

The Freedom Party benefited, in part, from the problems of the Popular Party. The group won office in 2017, after turning to the right on several issues. But the People’s Party was quickly embroiled in a series of scandals, including one linked rigged opinion polls published in the press. He also faced voter discontent over inflation and Covid restrictions, along with his most recent coalition partner, the Green Party.

After the loss of the election, Karl Nehammer, the chancellor in charge of the People’s Party, said that he will not enter a coalition with Mr. Kickl. Many saw the promise, made during the campaign, as a play to keep the chancellorship, rather than an ideological stance, as the two parties have a long history of working together in state and federal governments.

“There has never been fundamental criticism of the FPÖ’s understanding of democracy or the rule of law” from conservatives, Mr. Ennser-Jedenastik said.

Despite months of trying, the Popular Party was unable to form a coalition without the extreme right. And Mr. Nehammer announced his resignation from the chancellorship this week, paving the way for the Freedom Party to emerge on top in a coalition.

In a governing coalition, Mr. Kickl will not be able to make all his promises. The next Austrian government will need to close a budget deficit, which could hinder its economic agenda, including tax cuts and increased social spending.

But the party’s popularity will give it a strong voice as it pushes for policy changes aimed at foreigners and refugees, according to analysts. Probably among them: cut social services to those who don’t speak German or reduce financial aid for refugees.

During the autumn elections, 29 percent of Austrians voted for the Freedom Party. Current polling now puts voter support at more than 35 percent.

“If Kickl ever feels that the other side isn’t taking these talks seriously, he’ll just get off the table and force an early election,” Mr. Hofinger said.