A Look Ahead: Prospects for Russia’s Continued War in Ukraine in 2025

After more than a thousand days of war, there are signs that Ukraine is running out of manpower. Russia is capitalizing, seizing territory faster this year than it has since 2022, and terrorizing Ukrainians with cheaply produced glide bombs — old Soviet-era munitions fitted with wings and GPS.

This past fall, we spoke with Colonel Maksym Balagura, a commander of special forces in the State Border Guard of Ukraine, and asked whether the use of glide bombs by Russia had changed the trajectory of the war

“Right now they are the biggest threat,” he told us. “They unlock the motivation of our soldiers to win.”

The Ukrainians fought back in August, with the largest foreign incursion into Russian territory since World War II.

But in October we found the mood in Kiev gloomy and anxious. The Ukrainians told us that they feared that if Donald Trump wins the US election, he will stop the supply of weapons, and pressure the government of Ukraine to give up the territory.

One woman, Halina, told us that her husband was serving in the army, and she hoped that the Americans would not abandon him.

I asked, “Are you worried that Donald Trump might cut off the supply of arms to Ukraine?”

“Yes,” she replied. “For us, it’s a matter of survival.”

After the election, President Joe Biden finally gave Ukraine permission to hit Russia with American-supplied ATACMs — missiles with a range of close to 200 kilometers — perhaps in an attempt to help Ukraine maximize the their earnings before Trump takes office.

Without a steady flow of American weapons, Ukraine’s front line could collapse. It could give Russian President Vladimir Putin a monumental victory. Throughout this shrill war of attrition, he expected the unity of the West and the resolution to fall.

Story produced by Mark Hudspeth. Publisher: Ed Givnish.

Holly Williams

Holly Williams is a CBS News senior foreign correspondent based in the CBS network’s London bureau. Williams joined CBS News in July 2012, and has more than 25 years of experience covering major news events and international conflicts in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.