If BTC continues its 2017 cycle, it could surpass $1 million by the end of the year: Van Straten

The FTX crash may seem like a distant memory when Bitcoin (BTC) falls to around $15,500 in November 2022. The mood at the time was one of extreme fear and the industry never thought it would recover.

But more than two years later, bitcoin is trading above $100,000 under a new, supposedly crypto-friendly US administration. Donald Trump is now officially the 47th President of the United States, but he hasn’t announced anyone yet crypto policies.

One of the many debates surrounding Bitcoin is the quadrennial cycle analysis built around the halving program, which reduces the supply every four years. We see similar cycles playing out, with big price increases in the year following a doubling, and this current cycle continues to mirror the previous two cycles.

So far, Bitcoin is up nearly 550% from its cycle low during the FTX crash (black line). The chart shows that at this point in the current cycle, between the 2015 and 2018 cycles, the price of Bitcoin (blue line) has also been around a similar amount from the January 14, 2015 cycle low.

It is important to note that Glassnode data takes the closing price at 00:00 UTC, which may differ from other trading platforms.

The green line shows BTC’s 1,300% gain at this point in the cycle from 2018 to 2022, more than double the token’s gains so far.

If bitcoin continues to track the cycle from 2015 to 2018, it will end roughly 1100% higher than the cycle low at the end of Q1 2025, putting one bitcoin at $186,000. The peak of the cycle will be 11,000% higher in October of this year, around $1.7 million.

There are many other ways to compare this to previous cycles, such as US presidential administrations. According to a post on X Bitcoin ArchiveBitcoin has risen 20-fold during Donald Trump’s first term as president. A mere 10x return would cost around $1 million in bitcoins from here.