ISIS increasingly unopposed after the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, the collapse of Syria

The threat posed by the Islamic State returned to the headlines after the New Year’s Day Attack on a busy street in New Orleans on Wednesday by a man who may have ties to the terrorist network.

Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a US-born citizen living in Texas and an Army Veteran, drove a pickup truck with an ISIS flag into a crowd on Bourbon Street, killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens others.

However, the FBI has not confirmed its direct “affiliation” or “association” with the notorious terrorist network that has developed around the globe in recent years, especially in regions such as the Sahel in Africa, despite 2019 claims that the terrorist network had been “defeated”.

Law enforcement officers from multiple agencies work at the scene on Bourbon Street after at least 15 people were killed when a person allegedly drove into a crowd in the early morning hours of New Year’s Day on the 1 of January 2025 in New Orleans. (Michael DeMocker/Getty Images)

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“Claims of the defeat of the Islamic State, like claims of the defeat of al Qaeda, are premature,” Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the Long War Journal. “These groups may have setbacks, but they are persistent.

“The Islamic State presents a threat from Afghanistan. It has a significant network in Africa, particularly in the Sahel and East Africa, in Somalia. And its network in Iraq and Syria persists,” he added.

While the FBI has not confirmed that the New Orleans attacker was directly involved with ISIS, reports have suggested that he was apparently sympathetic to the terrorist network and “pledged allegiance to ISIS” in a series of videos posted on his Facebook page. according to the New York Times.

The FBI has not yet released a motive for the attack, and Roggio explained that this incident is unlikely to indicate that there is a “resurgence” of ISIS, although the security expert highlighted that the network terrorist is increasingly facing less resistance. areas where it had previously been opposed.

The withdrawal of 2021 from Afghanistan and the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria Last month the organization derived from Al Qaeda called Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham left security vacuums in the Middle East and South Asia – similar to what contributed to the rise of ISIS after the US withdrawal from Iraq. Security experts have warned that ISIS and other terrorist networks could use these power gaps.

People wave guns in the air as they gather to celebrate the fall of the Syrian regime in Umayyad Square on December 8 in Damascus, Syria. (Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images)

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ISIS-K – the regional branch of the terrorist group that originating in Iraq and Syria – gained international attention in August 2021 when he attacked Afghans fleeing the Taliban takeover amid the US withdrawal and used a suicide attack to kill 13 American service members and about 170 Afghan civilians.

The Taliban takeover raised concerns that Afghanistan would become a safe haven for terrorists such as Taliban allies al Qaeda, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and other jihadist groups, although there were also concerns that the new government body in Afghanistan would be unable to oppose ISIS-K.

ISIS-K has been largely incapacitated thrives significantly in Afghanistan after the fall of the democratic government and the withdrawal of American forces, but it is not yet more fervently opposed.

“The Taliban and the Islamic State are enemies. The Taliban go after the Islamic State even when we are not here – that does not make them a partner in terrorism, but now they do not have the double threat against them – the States United targeting the Islamic State and the Taliban targeting the Islamic State — they have more freedom of movement,” Roggio said.

An Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) fighter holds an ISIL flag and a weapon on a street in the city of Mosul, June 23, 2014. (Photo Reuters)

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The security expert said that when it comes to Afghanistan and the threats against the United States and its Western allies, the Taliban and Al Qaeda remain a greater threat than ISIS, although he emphasized that ISIS increasingly has “more room to operate.”

“The Assad regime was an enemy of the Islamic State,” Roggio said. “One of the enemies of the Islamic State has been removed from the board, and therefore it will give ISIS more space to strengthen the force in an area where it already has a significant presence.”

However, there is a third area where ISIS has strong roots and where it could see a resurgence if the US pulls troops out of the area again.

The Biden administration in September announced that, in coordination with the Iraqi government, the United States would end its military mission in Iraq to fight the Islamic State by 2026. The move was met with immediate concern by security experts who argued that ISIS remains a major threat. to the United States, and it could also endanger American soldiers who are still fighting the terrorist network in Syria.

The specifics on the withdrawal of troops are not clear, and plans to renegotiate a change to withdrawal plans after the collapse of the Assad regime and the ambiguous state of Syria have not emerged.

It also remains unlikely that the incoming Trump administration will push to keep US troops in Iraq despite the threat posed by ISIS given the president-elect’s push to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan during his first term.

Service members part of Operation Inherent Resolve train and salute the U.S. flag during a Memorial Day ceremony at Union III in Baghdad on May 27, 2024. (US Army)

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“The United States has to decide whether they want to stay in Iraq and Syria to counter the Islamic State and other target groups,” Roggio said. “And if he decides to stay, he needs to strengthen (his) presence to deter threats from militia groups that have attacked American troops.

“The effort of the United States to keep the Islamic State is critical. Without the presence of the United States there, groups like the Islamic State, thrive given the anarchy,” added the security expert. “As bad as the Assad regime was, and it was a horrible regimehe did fight the Islamic State – so without his presence, you have another terrorist organization that is in nominal control of large areas of Syria.

“As we learned in Afghanistan, you can’t trust terrorists to fight other terrorists,” Roggio added.

Fox News Digital could not reach Trump’s transition team for comment on his plans regarding US troops in the Middle East.