Russian ships return to Syrian Tartous base ahead of planned withdrawal

Two Russian ships linked to its military have docked at the Kremlin’s naval base on the Syrian coast in Tartous, with experts suggesting the early evacuation of the facility has finally begun.

The Sparta and Sparta II docked in Tartous on Tuesday. Both ships are sanctioned by the United States and have been linked to the transport of Russian weapons from Ukraine.

Analysts have anticipated that Russia will reduce its military footprint from Syria after the fall of the Assad regime in December – which it supported during the civil war.

Large amounts of military hardware have been moved into the port in recent weeks and have been seen in satellite photos analyzed by BBC Verify.

The images appear to show dozens of vehicles and other equipment sitting at the port. The hardware first appeared in mid-December following footage of large columns of Russian vehicles moving north towards the base – indicating they had been redirected by other outposts across the country.

The ships’ arrival coincides with reports in Syrian media that Russia’s lease for the port has been cancelled. The new transitional government in Damascus refused to confirm the reports to the BBC, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also refused to comment when asked during a press conference in Moscow.

Tartous has been a key base for Russia in recent years, allowing it to supply, resupply and repair ships in the Mediterranean.

The Kremlin has appeared keen to retain control of the base, and said in December that Russian officials were talking to the new authorities about a continued presence.

Analysts have suggested that the Sparta and Sparta II – which are ultimately owned by Oboronlogistika LLC – a shipping company operating as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense, were denied permission to dock at Tartous as the discussions continued. The ships spent several weeks off the coast of Syria in the Mediterranean Sea.

Marine tracking sites show that the ships finally docked on Tuesday evening, after they switched off their transponders.

The weather in recent days has made it difficult to get clear satellite images. But images from the EU’s Sentinel radar satellites – which are low-resolution but able to penetrate the cloud – reveal that the ships were in the military section of the port.

until now, no Russian military ships had been seen in Tartous since the fall of the Assad regime in early December. In earlier high-resolution satellite images, dozens of military vehicles could be seen parked near where the ships are now docked. Also nearby were cranes that could be used to load equipment.

It is possible that two other Russian naval vessels are also present in the port, naval analyst Frederik Van Lokeren told BBC Verify. He said the ships, the Ivan Gren and the Alexander Otrakovsky, could also be involved in an evacuation – a sentiment echoed by Ukrainian military intelligence at BBC Verify.

“With the cancellation of the 49-year lease, it has become very clear to Russia that it can no longer hope to maintain a military presence in Tartous and therefore there seems to be no sense in staying there and delaying plus sea evacuation.” Mr. Van Lokeren added.

Evacuating all of Russia’s equipment may take a while though, according to Anton Mardasov from the Middle East Institute’s Syria program.

“Over the years, much more has been brought to us than these ships and vessels can take,” Mr Mardasov told BBC Verify.

Meanwhile, there is also continued activity at the main Russian airbase in Syria, Hmeimim. Satellite images have shown large Russian planes being loaded with military equipment on various dates since the fall of the Assad regime.

Ukrainian military intelligence said flights into Russia have transferred military personnel and equipment from Hmeimim to air bases in Libya at least 10 times since mid-December. The Kremlin already supports the Tobruk-based warlord Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya.

Moscow has long maintained a presence in two of the bases mentioned by Ukrainian intelligence – Al-Khadim and Al-Jufra. A former member of the UN working group on mercenaries, Dr Sorcha MacLeod, told BBC Verify that the facilities were previously run by the Wagner Group.

She said Russia’s Ministry of Defense has taken over responsibility for the bases through its new Africa Corps. The force is directed directly from Moscow and has took over much of the former role of the Wagner group.

Dr. Macleod added that the transfer of Russian forces to the country “makes sense given that Libya has become such a large center for Africa Corps operations and access to West Africa.”

Additional reporting by Ned Davies and Joshua Cheetham. Graphics by Mesut Ersoz.