The big trump fees and small ambitions

Donald Analysis Trump Rate is similar to shot in a moving target. Have confidently told the start of the weekend there was “nothing“Mexico, Canada and China could do to prevent rates are imposed, Mexico and Canada managed to negotiate a reflection on Monday.

This is a rare time for pity economists. It’s fairly tough to predict the policies of the president’s policies, but much harder when too much is about surprising everyone, including Trump.

We do not know the following: If the United States animals do not pass; either are temporary or permanent; be a negotiation chip or punishment. We do not know what the other countries are imposing. All these things are crucial, even before reaching deep mistakes that are found in the patterns of economists.

Eassurators should not hear you in particular treatment the bad treatment, however. Announce fees on the weekend, the President of the SUU its the secretary of his Treasury that was touching a more modern version of fees just a couple of days before. I am Scott Bessent has no idea.

Sunday, Trump had rapid rates at the basis of the three countries “guilt in the The US addiction to Fentanyyl, Security Lay Border, Trade deficits and his Territorial ambitations on the Canadian land. I am Of course its estimate of a Canadian trade facility of $ 200bn was roughly four times too high. I am Trump is still clueless.

In a world where no one knows anything for certain, here is an attempt to give some context. One thing I have no harmful is the tiny price of trump extracted to withdraw the immediate fee threat. Mexico seems to be promised to send troops to its north north where they are already stationary and Canada promised to create a fentanyyl Tsar.

How much are the great fees proposed?

After Trump ads, they are quickly there some awesome land numbers that fly around, as the fact of the fact that 90 percent of evocats consumed in the US they come from Mexico. But what we really want to know is the proportion of the imports of us that will make new fees.

Obviously this number will change over time because we would care about other providers, but it is a good point of departure.

The grace under the last noses of noses of the 12th month until the 2024, showing that approximately 40 percent of a hundred concerns are coming from the Mexico, Canada and China. With crade of oil from Canada to the same period of approximately $ 100bn (assuming the Western price of $ 60 a little more than these important

These figures permit another calculation of-the-envelope. With about 40 percent of the imports that makes a fee approximately 20 percent on average, we can work the tariff fees to the US. If you fully imposed, and with constant trading patterns, the USA fee rate of the United States does not increase a little under 8 percentage points.

Putting this in historical context under, Trump’s weekend announcement was therefore huge.

The fees were larger than decline in the duties associated with the tariffs and marketing (cat) after the Second World War II with the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Trump like to compare your ordidi, foo 25 Republican McKinley’s USD, who have impounded a 49.5 per cent to 1890. Concitors with the effects of the McKinley.

US International Consignment Data of Fair Display the fees of us pounded after his imposition to October 1890 because the proportion of the goods of goods food falls by 55 percent of 1891 to 41.

Don’t tell the President, which sees the fees like cow-in cow, but made the summer fares in summer also fell down because of the trade in feathers

The fact that trading patterns are sensitive to great fees a key problem with the dotted line in the chart below, that does not assume change in trade models. It’s so wrong if used as a prediction, but it is still another number useful purely a scale illustration. These fees are great.

It is back 18 1890, which McKinley also found this support, was the sortgical for his republican party decade almost represpatches. Surprise, surprise, people didn’t wretched the highest prices.

McKinley’s party lost almost half of their seats In the election of 1890 for the house of representatives only one month after fees were set. The trump care? That knows. YOU’RE? It doesn’t look like him.

How big are the economic effects?

We now know that they assume constant trade models for a forecast, I am however to add it to her because it’s useful to prove you scale. Importation merchators are approximately the 10 percent of the US GLIand if the price of these rose roses from 8 percent (the general rate size increases), US price would be approximately 0.8 percent. This is for the economists are suggestions a effect on inflation of between 0.5 percent and 1 percent. I am

This is a sense, but again a terrible forecast. For what? Because we do not know how companies as an apology for further price through the price or whether the fees will be absorbed in margins or for some exporters to the US.

The wider economic impact of Trump fees represents a shock of supply to the US and a request to ask other economies. My colleagues in the FT monetary radar’s radar Written a big piece on it. I am

Says, exchanging economic effects is extremely difficult. We know the fees and shocks of very important chains are potentially important to the growth and even the effects are almost they tend to quality and were estimated in very small changes.

In voo music, it’s probably getting to know more at Ngozi Okonjojojo-IWAALA of the common organization of the blood, when she says a powerful trade of the powerful trade could generate a “catastroromo“Result. The imf model shown in the chart of suggesting the business wars have little harm.

Are consumers of the unituous US.

US consumer expenses was notificantly strong in the fourth National Accounts of the Fourth Published Last week from the bureau of economic analysis. I am Even more interesting was so much of the true growth in a thorns arrived from durable well. These percentage percentage percentage percentage contributions 2.3 percent annualized to the fourth quarter.

Were US consumers anticipating fees and buy before prices are found? Pretty possibly. The data suggests that is a plausible story and one that would probably follow by a buyer shot if steep fixes persist.

What i read and watch

• An ancient Fed official has been arrested and accused of passing the economic secrets to China. As Liza Tobin says in a fabulous written: “If someone from a Chinese university you offer $ 450,000 for a part-time work, escape”

• Not that the ft position on the trump trade war surprises many people: the newspaper Think it is absurd

• A group of Europeans require more fees are fertilizer producers. They want anti-dumping tasks to be applied to Russia

• Martin Wolf is sadness about the rise of the ru long go Proofs

A chart that matters

Before the weekend excitement on the fees, I have been thinking about a depth in depths of housing and their contribution to the UK inflation. This is a tale of measuring data fascinating data data of rental pizza data and the United States and the important question of the stock and flow. The blame to Trump you have now missed.

While the Bank of England’s monetary committee is concerned that the UK is more persistence in the inflation of the services, a lot of the UK’s issue with the UK prices. The chart below displays the UK Services inflation the adjustment was lower in the latest data that or or the Eurozone.

It is difficult to see the UK as having a special inflation problem that others don’t share. We’ll see the boe interpretation when you decide interest rates on Thursday.