The failed shutdown pushes South Korea into uncharted territory

The stand-off began long before dawn. By the time we arrived in the dark, an army of police had driven back angry supporters of suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol, who had camped overnight hoping to stop his arrest. Some of those I spoke to wept, others wailed, at what they feared was about to unfold.

As dawn broke, the first officers rushed to the house, but were instantly thwarted – blocked by a wall of soldiers protecting the compound. Reinforcements arrived, but could not help. The doors to Yoon’s home were firmly sealed, his security team refusing entry to police officers.

For several hours, the investigators waited, the crowd outside that was more agitated – until, after a series of scuffles between the police and security officers, they decided that their mission was useless, and gave up.

This is totally uncharted territory for South Korea. It’s the first time a sitting president has ever faced arrest, so there’s no rule book to follow — but the current situation is still surprising.

When Yoon was impeached three weeks ago, he was allegedly stripped of his power. So to have law enforcement officers trying to make an arrest — who have a legal warrant — only to be blocked by Yoon’s security team raises serious and uncomfortable questions about who’s in charge here .

Investigating officers said they abandoned efforts to arrest Yoon not only because it seemed impossible, but because they were concerned for his safety. They said 200 soldiers and security agents linked arms, forming a human wall to block the entrance to the presidential residence, with some carrying rifles.

This is undoubtedly part of Yoon’s plan, exploiting a system he himself designed. Before he declared martial law last month — a plan we now know he cooked up months earlier — he surrounded himself with close friends and loyalists, injecting them into positions of power.

One of those people is the current head of its security team, who took the job in September.

But even if it is alarming, this situation is not entirely surprising. Yoon has refused to cooperate with authorities on this investigation, ignoring all requests to come in for questioning.

That’s how things got to this point, where the investigators felt they had no choice but to take him by force. Yoon is being investigated for one of the most serious political crimes there is: inciting an insurrection, which is punishable by life in prison or death.

Yoon also galvanized his supporters, who have gathered in force outside his residence every day since the arrest warrant was issued. He sent them a letter on New Year’s Day thanking them for “working hard” to defend him and the country.

Although most people in South Korea are angry and upset about Yoon’s decision to impose martial law, a core of his supporters have remained loyal. Some even camped overnight, in freezing temperatures, to try to prevent the police from reaching their homes.

Many told me this morning that they were ready to die to protect Yoon, and they are repeating the same baseless conspiracy theories that Yoon himself floated – that last year’s election was rigged, and the country had been infiltrated by pro-North Korean forces. They held signs that said “stop the steal”, a slogan they chanted repeatedly.

The focus is also now on acting President Choi Sang-mok of South Korea, and how far his powers extend; if he could and should sack the president’s security chief and force the team to allow his arrest. The opposition party says the police should arrest anyone who stands in their way.

Although the investigators have until January 6 to try this arrest again – this is when the warrant ends – it is unlikely that they will enter once again without changing their strategy or negotiating with the security team in advance. They will want to avoid a repeat of today’s failure.

They also have to contend with Yoon’s crowd of supporters, who now feel victorious and empowered. I believe that they are largely responsible for the fall of authority. “We won, we did,” they chanted all afternoon.

As his confidence grows, so do his numbers, especially with the weekend approaching.