The US may not be buying Bitcoin, but Arthur Hayes isn’t worried

Entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes fears Bitcoin will suffer a “brutal selloff” as Donald Trump takes office.

In a characteristically long blog post (After a 300-word introduction about yoga), the trader warned that crypto investors have unrealistically high expectations of what the president can accomplish.

Trump has promised to make America the “crypto capital of the world” and a strategic Bitcoin reserveHayes says his administration only has 12 months to implement ambitious policies.

“There are no politically viable solutions for Trump to implement such changes quickly,” he wrote on Substack.

Hayes predicts that much of the president-elect’s next term will be taken up by the 2026 midterm elections — a time when Republicans will lose control at the hands of impatient voters, he said.

“It’s almost impossible to appease Trump’s base enough to prevent Democrats from taking back both legislatures in 2026. The public is impatient and desperate,” he writes.

As this realization takes hold in the markets, he says, Bitcoin and other so-called “Trump trades” will remain “confused garbage.”

“Investors are prepared for severe buyer’s remorse,” Hayes writes.

Hayes is particularly suspicious of Trump’s promise to turn 200,000 BTC taken from criminals into a taxpayer-owned warehouse, suggesting that no such reserve will be created.

“However, it is not important to have a US BSR because its threat creates buying pressure,” he writes.

Elsewhere in his essay, Hayes suggests that “another pillar of the crypto bull market” could emerge if mainland Chinese investors are allowed to gain exposure to Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong.

He claims that those in power in all EU countries are “secretly buying cryptos by the fistful,” while everyday consumers “suffer from state-sanctioned inflation,” adding: “That’s the crust of the croissant.”

While Hayes believes Bitcoin’s best days are ahead, he cautions that the path to $1 million will be paved with unpleasant corrections along the way. “Trump Truth tells me the best way to increase income is to own Bitcoin and crypto,” he writes.

The 39-year-old is known for his bold opinions and predictions, but he’s not afraid to mark his homework.

Back in September Hayes admitted that he was only 25% successful in his market predictions over a 12-month period, describing the score as “pretty bad for the average person”. Nevertheless, Hayes maintained that it remained profitable using long-term macroeconomic trends.

Edited by Stacey Elliott.