The youngest countries learn to rule their bet in the trump age

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In normal circumstances, the cooking islands only attracts attention from the lighter, kiwi verdists. Okay because the remote country has a New Zealand’s Santa’s treatment (and, by extension, Western allies) – and joints and stunned beams.

But we do not live in normal times; Your US Donald Trump’s US President is flashing postwar geopolitic order. And this week brown brown, the islands cooked, boarded in an investment agreement with China.

New Zealand’s government is extended in horror, fears Trump’s revenge. But the cook’s island seems undetered. And these rich of the land in the Pacific have become a powerful symbol of how geopolitical sands.

As the hurricane of the trump in the globe, two key themes have become Clear: America’s leaders are decided with the United States growth in each cost, be that diplomatic; And equally determined to use the heregonic power, joints, financial, financial and commercial and commercial and trades together.

By the result of the result, other nations makes three choices: become a jerk of America’s Imperial power; Oppos everyone to Allying with United States rivals like China and Russia; or copying the cook islands and try to almost your bet.

Some have already done their choice. Take Nicaragua. Last month, Amid Tructs for Truce Per Plan Panama and / or Chich China’s Hover Canu cuan, The Nicaragian government changed their constitution To enable construction of a waterway by linking the Atlantic and Pacific. This might preserve an alternative to Panama channel, and spell as neighboring is doubt in being in china countryside.

At the other end of the spectrum, Japanese Premier, Shibi Shibi, moved in a tribute manner. During a visit to Washington last week, Endings of Palazza “, and promises to invests $ Americician’s natural oodles of the US GIRLSHIP OF THE US, as well.

I also predict the Tokyo try to enforce American embactions) and can also buy long dated telesters “for US military protection).

Meanwhile, Narendra ways, Indian Premier, It has been in Washington this weekby engaged to collect the Ung’s Ung’s imports and the plans. And Britain only has side with America at a top of artificial intelligence in Paris.

When I get chatly in Davos with Davos Minh Chíh chíh, premier, it was also wet to destroy the President of the job (of the gallobals) have moved the production here to avoid e the US sanctions in China).

“We have to buy 50 to 100 plans (from the US) and other technology articles, he would” play “with the Golf” with Trump to the Mar-A-Lake “if good for (national) interests. “Has another” Gift “: Trump is reported pleasant for a large casino investment, diplomatic casinos. In case, that could be key.

However, the trouble for Vietnam – as every other nation – is that Trump is so capricious that no one knows that guarantees security. In the terms of merchants, treatment is impossible to “price” for the long term – for governments and investors.

Cus, there is a strip of shooting of “attacking the kingdom, and spend your way”, to cite Bukharan Provebth was in other words, make competent tributes as well as your bets.

Indeed this is probably the only thing sensible for most countries to do, according to world-senial elicit project (A search site on economic hegemonic power that is of answers with the sleeves charts showing the countries are more vulnerable to the American hegemonic power and Chinese). Dating input, this notes, it is crucial if the countries are to grow “security” security “in a whim.

This dinner trend has consequences. One is that the trade between non-us countries, Create the general global trade volumes, regardless of trump. Another one is that supply chains I am becoming longerpotentially increasing costs. And one-third is that the tentacles of the Chinese influence are stealthily of the spread-in the beaches of the remote Pacific – as well as a global force.

Ironically, this flying in the face of the desire declared trump beijing’s wings. Indeed, future historical has the label all its strategy as self-care. But now the president seems to be convinced that their levisy remains to act in an unexpected and imperial manner.

Perhaps you can understand that these tacta also create a need for hedge, precisely because no one can “price”. But do not bet. I am trying to, wait that those shutdown tributes to look in pour, accompany by fake smiles.

Gillian.Tett@ft.com