The new year. A time for reflection, decisions and predicting exactly where each team will finish at the end of the 2024-25 Premier League season.
While we can’t predict exactly how many times you’ll use that shiny new gym membership in the coming months, or how strictly you’ll stick to that “new year, new me” mantra, Opta league prediction The model helps form a picture of what the table might look like by the time May rolls around.
Using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings, the model estimates the probability of each match’s outcome (win, draw or loss), based on the team’s historical and recent performance.
These results are then used to simulate the remaining championship matches thousands of times to see how often teams finished in each position to generate a final table prediction.
So, as the Premier League reaches the halfway mark, take in the last of the Boxing Day remnants as we look at how the Premier League table could shape up in five months’ time.
Liverpool to lift the trophy
Somewhat unsurprisingly, Arne Slot’s side are at the top of the prediction pile, with a 91.3% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy.
The Reds are currently eight points clear with just one defeat so far this season in all competitions. Despite the troubling issues off the pitch – namely, the continued uncertainty over the futures of Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, whose contracts expire next summer – Liverpool are in incredible form.
They have won their last three league games in a row, scoring 14 goals in the process. They put six past Tottenham on December 22 before scoring five without reply against West Ham at the London Stadium on Sunday.
Can anyone stop them?
It ends in 2024 with a victory in the capital 😍 #WHULIV pic.twitter.com/rIBrfWon7v
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) December 29, 2024
Manchester City will finish in the top four
Two wins in 14 matches in all competitions. By their standards, City’s form in recent years has been pretty abysmal.
But while it seems highly unlikely that the champions will retain their Premier League crown this term, they are a team that can never truly be written off.
Given their dominance in previous seasons, Opta still have them at a 40.8% chance of finishing fourth. They are currently in fifth place having ended the year with a 2-0 win over Leicester – a result that manager Pep Guardiola described as a “relief”.
Despite scaling the lofty heights of second place this term, according to Opta, high-flying Forest have no chance of repeating the Foxes’ title-winning heroics of 2015-16.
The prediction model gives them a 0% chance of finishing top, but predicts that Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will finish the campaign in a respectable fifth place.
We are in this together. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/COUQPkzPXr
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) December 29, 2024
The drop zone
Unlike Forest, the predicted table makes for enjoyable viewing for Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton fans.
All three teams promoted from the Championship last term are predicted to go straight back down, with struggling Saints having an 83.8% chance of remaining rooted to the bottom of the league.
New manager Ivan Juric said his style of football has similarities to death metal music, but he will be hoping it is still life in his team for the second half of the season.
End of half time for Manchester United
United have a 14.1% chance of finishing 12th this season. Despite the arrival of new boss Ruben Amorim, the Red Devils have struggled for any kind of consistency in recent weeks, with four wins, one draw and five defeats during the Portuguese manager’s tenure.
Their next three games – Newcastle at home, Liverpool away and Arsenal away in the FA Cup – could ultimately define their season.
The predicted Premier League table
According to Opta:
1. Liverpool
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Newcastle United
7. Aston Villa
8. Bournemouth
9. Tottenham
10. Fulham
11. Brighton
12. Manchester United
13. Brentford
14. Crystal Palace
15. West Ham
16. Everton
17. Wolves
18. Leicester City
19. Ipswich Town
20. Southampton
2024-12-30 12:34:00
