Why are US refiners not Ditch Canada Crude

Mexico Claudia Sybaum president announced that the Tariffs in the US To hold a month After he discusses President Trump and promised to send 10,000 troops to the border to fight with drug trafficking. Trump also talks with Prime Minister of Canada Truneauu to discuss the Taries Tariffssaying that itttawa has “misunderstood” the situation. Within the weekend, Trump seized Canada and Mexican with 25% and China’s duties with 10% Levy. Oil flowers facing tariffs represent 44% of the imports of Ayang Ayang USA, 69% of the imports of crude imports and 81% of intense oil imports. Last week, Trump moves his usual bluster in isolationist, claiming that the US is not needed by Canadian commodities including oil and wood. “We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited energy, must make our own cars, and have a more wooden tree than we can use. If it does not have a large number of subsidy, Canada has stopped to exist as a possible country“He said while speaking to the economy world economy.

However, experts refer to Trump needs a reality check.

“This is not right“Richard Masson, a school executive at the University of Calgary publicly, told CTV news.”They need our oil. We have sent the Talayant asphalt, so four million barils a day go to states; Over two million guns a day melting asphalt. It continues to be configured refineries to process it, especially in Minneapolis, Chicago and Wood River. So they are very dependent on it. So, the first part is expected to talk to him and teach him if he doesn’t understand it. I’m sure the big US creepers do that today. But if it turns out to put a tariff on it, our challenge is what happens in general needs. “

Related: Canadian crude becomes a bargain for China while Pirts in the US

Similarly, the analysts of stresscharted commodities paints a terrible picture of the situation, speaking oil buyers in the middle of the tarks of other oils nearby Canada with Price in Canada.

According to the analysts, the US is imported ~ 6.6 million barrels per day (MB / d) of crude 2024, where 4.0 MB / D is a heavy oil available to upgrading sense with upgrading units. Canada provided 75% of us heavy crude oil imports in 2024, with its market share having steadily increased since 2000, squeezing outflows from Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. About 80% of Canadian production flows to the US river, with us the import of Canadian crude imports in a record of January 3, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Unfortunately for the Midwest refineries, heavy oil cannot be easily replaced with light oil consisting mainly of US shale shale shale shale shale production. StanChart explained that such switch will make a significant loss of optimizing more expensive cracking units that feeds require from heavy contempt. Canada gave 99.89% of all heavy imported long-term refineries in the last decade; The short replacement of this flow means that a tariff is more likely to feed local retail prices. Refiners should also cut the runs due to loss of refinyy optimization.

And, the increase in gas prices can be great: According to Gasolo’s analyst Patrick Patrick, the Midwest consumers may end their gas when his tariffs. Tom Kloza in oil price information service foretold That tariffs can lift fuel prices of $ 0.35 / gal in parts of the country if tariffs are fully passed by consumers.

Meanwhile, StanChart predicts that the export of US exports is likely to be all but stops, with oil repeated in Asia and Europe. Last month, European Union and Mexico agreed to a revised price agreement before Trump begins in the second term. Mexican, especially, pushing the EU trading attack ahead of Trump’s inauguration before reviewing US-Mexican trade agreement, known as USMCA. The US is, far away, the largest trade partner in Mexico, accounts for 83% of Mexican trade relationship. Trump criticizes EU trading practices and said he will execute the duties of bloc exports. He also said he would impose 25% tariff of things from Mexico.

“This landmark deal proves that open, bases based on the rules can bring for our development and economic security, as well as economic movement and lasting progress,“European Commission Presides Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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