Wildfires are wiping out California’s climate gains, UChicago research shows

As California’s wildfires rage again this summer, the damage is mounting. Only in 2020, wildfires killed 30 people and caused more than $19 billion in economic losses. In addition to immediate damages, forest fires lead to pollution that is destined to shave almost a year from the life expectancy of residents of California’s most polluted counties if pollution levels continue. What is often ignored is that, due to climate change’s higher temperatures and drier conditions, forest fires also contribute to climate change. A new analysis found that forest fires in 2020 alone will account for 30 percent of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Carbon dioxide from wildfires does not count against California’s emissions targets. But if so, wildfires could set California back from meeting its climate goals, with carbon emissions from California’s 2020 fire season alone accounting for 49 percent of 2030 state emissions target. In fact, the analysis— published in the October edition of the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Pollution—shows that the increase in emissions in one year is about twice the reductions achieved from 2003 to 2019.

“To the great credit of California’s employers and residents, from 2003 to 2019, California’s GHG emissions decreased by 65 million metric tons of pollutants, a 13 percent reduction driven largely by reductions from the power generation sector,” said. Michael JerrettUCLA Fielding School of Public Health professor of environmental health sciences and an author of the study. “In fact, the positive impact of all the hard work of nearly two decades is in danger of being swept aside by the smoke produced by a year of devastating forest fires.”

California’s wildfires will be the second largest source of emissions in the state in 2020, after the transportation sector. While some of the carbon emissions from fires will be offset by later regrowth of vegetation, it will not happen quickly enough to avoid more dangerous levels of rising emissions, temperatures, and climate change, the researchers said.

“Although wildfires are a natural part of many ecosystems in California, the increase in severe and frequent wildfire events raises the possibility of post-fire ecosystem change,” it said. dr. Miriam Marlieris a professor at the UCLA Fielding School and co-author. “Even if long-term growth occurs, however, the carbon emissions that will occur over the next 15-20 years will make it difficult to meet the emission reduction targets needed to avoid a rise in average global temperatures. world promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.”

The researchers also examined the financial costs. The carbon emissions released from the 2020 wildfires are equivalent to more than $7 billion in total global damage, or about $986.9 million in damage in the United States and about $98.7 million in damage for California. These damages go beyond the costs of fire prevention, damage from air pollution, and direct loss of life and property.

“When policymakers decide how much to invest in wildfire prevention, it is important for them to have a clear understanding of all costs and benefits, and until now, not enough attention has been paid to climate costs,” as co-author Amir Jinais an assistant professor at the Harris School of Public Policy. “At the same time, the climate costs associated with wildfires are often ignored in state climate policy debates. This analysis clearly shows that wildfire emissions should be an important part of climate policy if California is to meet its emission reduction goals.

—Adapted from an article first published in Energy Policy Institute at UChicago.